The 2026 Blue Wave: A Look at Senate Elections
Democrats have taken control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections. Out of the 35 Senate races, 33 have been projected, with 20 of them going blue. Eight of these victories were in states that backed President Trump in 2024. Voters in seven states flipped Republican-held seats to Democrats.
The Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi remain undecided. However, even in states where Republican senators won, the margins were narrower than expected. For instance, in West Virginia, Trump won by 42 percentage points in 2024, but Republican incumbent Sen. Shelly Moore Capito only won by approximately 20 points in 2026—a significant reduction.
Similarly, in Alabama, Barry Moore won by about 9 points, while Trump won the state by over 30 points in 2024. In Florida, GOP Sen. Ashley Moody's 3-point win in 2026 contrasted with Trump's 13-point victory in 2024.
In contrast, Democratic candidates saw larger wins. While Kamala Harris won Rhode Island by about 14 points in 2024, Sen. Jack Reed won reelection in 2026 with a 37-point margin. In fact, the average winning margins for Democrats in 2026 were double Harris's presidential election margins.
Republicans' average margins were half of Trump's 2024 wins. In states where voters switched sides between the 2024 presidential election and the 2026 Senate elections, all went to Democrats, who increased their margins by approximately 20 points.
| State | 2026 Senate Race Margin | 2024 Presidential Margin | |---|---|---| | (All states as of Nov. 4, with 99% of votes in) | | |